On Sept. 8, technical analyst “CryptoCon” proposed a Bitcoin halving market cycle theory based around November 28.
The analyst said that the model exists from the beginning of Bitcoin price history, which is mid-July 2010.
The theory is based around the date of the first two halvings, Nov. 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016.
“4-year cycles are extracted from Nov 28th, and July 9th marks intra cycle milestones,” he said.
The significance of the #Bitcoin halving’s is undeniable now.
My November 28th Cycles Theory is now only a part of this brand-new model:
The Halving Cycles Theory.
You’re going learn everything you need to know about right here.
This model exists from… pic.twitter.com/SSzzfpKTpx
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 7, 2023
Alternative Halving Cycle Theories
The four years of each cycle were divided into accumulation (green), fair value and preparation establishment (blue), bull market and new peak (red), and bear market (orange).
Using these yearly phases, each cycle so far has pivoted around 21 days before or after November 28 marking the bottom.
Future predictions can also be based on this, he said, forecasting that Bitcoin will set a next early top 21 days before or after July 9, 2024. The next cycle top will be 21 days before or after Nov. 28, 2025 according to the model.
BTC is currently in the cooling bear market phase according to this theory.
There are other theories that suggest Bitcoin market cycles have nothing to do with halvings.
“Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are just coincidences and have little to do with the halvenings,” said industry observer “Pledditor” on Sept. 5.
The cycles are more closely correlated with increases and decreases in the global M2 money supply, they said.
“Global M2 money supply has actually been having its own “4-year cycles” as of late, and those cycles have been reflected in most risk assets, including Bitcoin.”
I continue to believe that #bitcoin‘s 4 year cycles are just coincidences and have little to do with the halvenings.
Global M2 money supply has actually been having its own “4 year cycles” as of late, and those cycles have been reflected in most risk assets, including bitcoin pic.twitter.com/kMQMNdp9Gq
— Pledditor (@Pledditor) September 5, 2023
M2 is a broad measure of the global money supply including cash, currency, and bank and money market mutual fund deposits that are relatively liquid.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices have inched up marginally over the past 24 hours with a 1.8% gain. As a result, the asset was trading at $26,221 at the time of writing during Friday morning’s Asian trading session.
The move is minor, however, as the asset remains in consolidation around the $26K zone.