Bitcoin has been range-bound for the past two weeks, but there are signs of an imminent breakout.
The Daily Chart
During the last seven days, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a narrow range on the daily timeframe. This follows the market’s rejection at the $30K resistance level and the subsequent breakdown of the 50-day moving average at around $29K. Currently, the expected bearish target for the price is the $25K support level. However, there is a possibility that the price may first retest the 50-day moving average before continuing its decline towards $25K. Meanwhile, the RSI is showing an upward trend and approaching the 50% threshold, indicating a potential pullback towards the 50-day moving average or even another retest of the $30K resistance level in the coming weeks. It’s worth noting that if a bullish breakout above the $30K level occurs, it would likely invalidate the expected bearish scenario.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is currently retesting both the $27,500 level and the upper boundary of a small bearish flag. If it faces another rejection, there is a high chance of a decline towards the lower boundary of a larger channel and the $25K support level. However, if a breakout above this area occurs, it could lead to a push out of the larger channel, followed by a subsequent retest of the $30K level in the near future. Additionally, the RSI on this timeframe indicates bullish momentum with values above 50%, further supporting the likelihood of a bullish scenario unfolding.
The graph below shows the Bitcoin Active Addresses metric, a 30-day moving average, alongside the BTC price since the bear market of 2017. This metric serves as an indicator of market demand. During bull runs, the demand for Bitcoin rises, leading to an increase in active addresses. Conversely, during bearish market phases, interest in the industry wanes, resulting in a decline in the active addresses metric.
Bitcoin’s recent behavior resembles its price action at the beginning of the 2019 bull market. However, after a period of consolidation, the metric began an upward trend simultaneously with a bullish mid-term rally in price, indicating growing demand for Bitcoin. This phase can be referred to as the early stage of the 2019 bull run, preceding the main stage in which active addresses experienced a sustained surge. A similar pattern is unfolding currently as the metric continues to soar alongside Bitcoin’s upward movement. Based on the graph, it can be inferred that Bitcoin is potentially entering the early stage of its next bull run. Nevertheless, remaining aware of market risks and volatility during these periods is crucial.