Bitcoin has seen an increase in value since the beginning of the year amidst bank failures and the Federal Reserve’s slow withdrawal from its monetary tightening mission. CryptoPotato spoke with Benjamin Brannan, the Head of BD & Strategy at crypto market analytics firm CryptoQuant, at Consensus 2023 to discuss Bitcoin’s place in the market cycle, its relationship to gold, and how it fits in with the ongoing US banking crisis.
Bullish Times Ahead for Bitcoin
Brannan believes that Bitcoin is no longer in a bear market, but notes the possibility of corrections. Institutional clients are planning to invest in Bitcoin and crypto in Q3 and Q4 2023, though institutions are waiting until the latter half of the year for confirmation that Bitcoin has exited the bear market.
“These are from conversations that I’ve been having mainly with institutional allocators and also people who are fundraising core funds as well,” said Brannan. “They’ve been speaking with various institutions or high net worth individuals.”
Bitcoin and Gold
Due to the US banking crisis, Bitcoin has appreciated significantly from $16,500 at the start of the year to over $27,000 and has become increasingly correlated with gold. Branaan believes that the “rush to Bitcoin” indicates that the market sees it as a safe haven asset and in the long term, it will behave like a mixture of stocks and gold.
The 4-Year Market Cycle
Bitcoin is known for moving cyclically between bull and bear markets every four years. Brannan identifies several reliable indicators to identify tops and bottoms in the market.
Both Brannan and Ho Chan Chung, CryptoQuant’s Head of Marketing, believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to retest its $16,000 lows and may surpass its previous all-time high by Q2 2024 – right around the time of the next Bitcoin halving. Brannan predicts that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million by 2030, even with the tightening regulatory situation in the United States.