Bitcoin has failed to break above the $30K resistance level and has been consolidating in a tight range for the past few days. However, market participants have several potential scenarios to watch in the short term.
Technical Analysis
By: Edris
The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating within a narrow range after a rejection from the $30K resistance level. The 50-day moving average was also broken at around $29K. The most likely target may be around $25K, but the price may also retest the 50-day moving average before moving lower towards that level. Furthermore, the RSI is currently below the 50% threshold, indicating the dominance of selling sentiment.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price has been attempting to break above the $27,500 level, but it has repeatedly been rejected. As a result, the lower boundary of the large flag pattern may be tested soon. Alternatively, if the price climbs above $27,500, a rally towards the higher trendline of the pattern could be expected. Additionally, the RSI has remained flat around the 50% mark, providing little indication of future price direction.
On-chain Analysis
Bitcoin Miners Position Index
Bitcoin’s price has rebounded since the beginning of the year, but the question remains if the bear market is truly over or if there will be more downtrends before the next cycle begins. This chart depicts the miner’s position index, which measures the ratio of total miner outflow to its one-year moving average. High values indicate that miners are aggressively selling their coins. The chart shows multiple peaks, suggesting miners are using the recent price rally to offload significant amounts of BTC, possibly to cover their costs. This could be a sign of their pessimism about BTC’s short-term future and could trigger a sell-off if things remain the same. Thus, investors should be cautious as some on-chain metrics show negative signals, despite the substantial rebound in the price over the past few months.
