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Bitcoin price teases $30K breakdown ahead of US CPI, FOMC minutes

Bitcoin price teases $30K breakdown ahead of US CPI, FOMC minutes

Bitcoin (BTC) reached $30,000 on April 12 as the looming United States macroeconomic data increased worries.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Analyst warns markets “discounting significance” of CPI

BTC/USD hovered near the significant psychological level with overnight lows of $29,875 on Bitstamp according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March was due at 2.30 pm Eastern Time, followed by minutes from last month’s meeting of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where policymakers confirmed a 0.25% interest rate hike.

“Today is US CPI day, and for the first time in a long while, it feels like the market is discounting the significance of this event…,” analytics account Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of Twitter commentary.

“Trader positioning leading into today is nowhere near as conservative/risk-off as we typically would observe.”

CPI was forecasted at 5.2% year-on-year versus 6% a month ago, presenting a mixed bag. Fed policy remains hawkwish while the recent banking crisis has markets unsure about feasible further policy tightening.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of rate hikes continuing in May, but potentially pausing thereafter.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

“We are keeping in mind that the Fed is still largely data dependent and has warned against taking its foot off the pedal early,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a market update released on the day.

“Markets are 75% priced for a 25bps hike in May. Therefore this number carries great importance either way. A lower than expected print will likely take off the hike and lead to a risk asset rally.”

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QCP also mentioned that the release of the FOMC minutes may equal impact on crypto assets because of the divergence of the Fed’s position from market sentiment.

“Investors will closely scrutinize the reasons for the Fed’s downshifting and what they will keep an eye on in terms of the banking sector, liquidity, and overall market performance. While data dependency on inflation will be a critical factor, comments about bank stability will carry weight, in particular how many rate hikes the Fed see the current credit tightening as being equivalent to,” the update stated.

“Lately, crypto as an asset class has not been a good reflection of macro markets. To that end, crypto has its own event risk following the release of FOMC minutes.”

Ether gives up BTC gains

On the day of the Ethereum (ETH) Shanghai upgrade mainnet launch, altcoins saw a difficult 24 hours with many of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap shedding 3%-4%, reversing the gains that had accompanied Bitcoin’s push past the $30,000 mark, according to Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight.

Ether strength against Bitcoin fell to ten-month lows, with ETH/BTC trading at 0.062.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“As expected that strength on ETH/BTC was short lived,” popular trader Credible Crypto reacted.

He added that the performance did not “speak so much to weakness on ETH per se, but rather just much more strength on BTC as we continue our parabolic advance to new all time highs.”

ETH/BTC annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ Twitter

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