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Bitcoin price holds $29K as US PCE data sparks 90% Fed rate hike bets

Bitcoin price holds $29K as US PCE data sparks 90% Fed rate hike bets

Bitcoin (BTC) remained choppy during the April 28 Wall Street open, while United States macro data adhered to expectations.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PCE offers “nothing to shock”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD fluctuating around the $29,000 mark on Bitstamp.

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data, identified as the macro event of the week, did not deliver a performance catalyst as the numbers broadly confirmed what markets had already priced in.

Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro commented that “The trend is our friend, however core sticky for now – hovering at 4.6% since December.” He added that the latest numbers were “overall nothing to shock the market.”

U.S. equities showed minimal movement at the open, and for Bitcoin, Binance order book data suggested modest bid liquidity was moving toward the spot price, compressing potential volatility.

Attention is increasingly focused on the macro events of the coming week, including the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

As explained by financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter, existing strong odds of a further rate hike only gained momentum on the back of the PCE print.

Twitter analysis stated that “Interestingly, odds for another 25 bps rate hike in June are building, up to 28%. However, at least 2 rate cuts are expected this year. The Fed still has not said they support any rate cuts this year. Next week will be huge.”

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a 0.25% rate hike was a 90% certainty at the time of writing, up 5% versus the day prior.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

BTC price cements short-term range

With little certainty in BTC price action, traders focused on the longer-term trend.

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Jelle, already confident that major downside would be avoided, identified a new trading range for BTC/USD, with a possible “slow bleed” to just below the $29,000 mark.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital zoomed out further, eyeing a potential repeat of historical bullish trends to confirm the end of last year’s bearish trend.

He tweeted on April 27 that “Bitcoin has already broken its Downtrend. Now it’s all about continuing the new Uptrend. Whether a retest is needed or not is the question.”

“But history suggests the mid-term to long-term outlook looks bullish.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.