Bitcoin’s price is currently in consolidation mode after a recent recovery. The short-term market structure has shifted to bullish, but to begin a new bull market, the price must surpass a crucial level.
The Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, the price has been ranging below the $30K level for the last 10 days. However, today’s candle shows promising momentum to the upside, suggesting that the price may finally test the key $30K resistance level soon.
Above the $30K mark would raise the probability of a new bull market significantly. However, a potential rejection from this area could lead to a drop back towards the $25K support zone. Moreover, the RSI indicator indicates considerable bullish momentum but is approaching the overbought area, so it needs to be monitored closely.
The 4-Hour Chart:
Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, a clear bullish market structure is visible. The price has increased rapidly since rebounding from the $20K area and has broken multiple levels. The recent consolidation is also clearer in this timeframe, as the price has potentially been forming a bullish flag that is currently breaking upwards.
A breakout in this timeframe would pave the way for the market to test the $30K area. The RSI also shows a bullish signal, with the oscillator breaking back above the 50% threshold, indicating positive and current upward momentum.
Bitcoin Exchange Outflow (Binance)
Following recent CFTC allegations against Binance and its CEO, CZ, it is useful to examine the exchange and its users’ behavior. This chart demonstrates exchange outflow (30-day moving average), which measures the amount of BTC withdrawn from Binance daily.
Two significant increases in outflows have occurred recently, with the first and more significant one happening during the formation of the $17K low. The second increase, which interests us more, has been happening since the beginning of March. There are two possible reasons for this trend.
Firstly, some investors are optimistic about a new bull market and are keen to withdraw their coins and store them in their personal wallets. Secondly, the recent allegations may have prompted some whales to withdraw their assets out of caution, as conditions for Binance could worsen.
Either way, while these crackdowns are generally bad for the crypto market in the short term, coins flowing out of exchanges would benefit the price in the long term as supply would gradually shrink.